Smeed’s Law

Yesterday’s Jordan Times carried an article by Gwynne Dyer called Smeed’s Law. R.J. Smeed was a professor of traffic studies at University College London who proposed a statistical rule in 1949. His theory goes against common sense because it says that traffic accidents actually decrease over time, although the number of cars and miles of roads increase. By way of explanation Mr. Dyer says that the highest accident rates are in developing countries while in developed countries, the accident rates are actually falling steadily each year. He attributes this to the fact that almost everyone in the developed world is a third generation driver. So there is hope for us in Jordan.

One frequent topic of meetings in the country is Jordan’s traffic problems, and it certainly is a popular subject for conversation in general. Relax everybody! Given enough time, customs and traditions of good driving will kick in, and Jordanians will steadily become better drivers. Now that is good news!

ASH